After nearly thirty years of management consulting, I consider myseslf to have good perception about client issues and to be an excellent decision maker. When is it OK to trust my instincts and when should I turn to others for verification?
Asking means you are aware that you might not be as good a decision maker as your experience might indicate. In fact, many of us overestimate our perceptiveness or decision making accuracy. Think you are a good decision maker? Let's see.
Answer the following ten questions with a numerical range (one low and one high number) that you are 90% confident contains the correct answer (i.e., there is at most a 1 in 10 chance your range is too small). Next Monday we'll provide the answers so you can see whether your decision making confidence is warranted.
- Length of the Nile River (in miles)
- Diameter of the moon (in miles)
- Weight of an empty Airbus 380 (in pounds)
- Year in which Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart was born
- Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days)
- Air distance from Chicago to Shanghai (in miles)
- Year the first spacecraft landed on the moon
- Area of US national parks (in square miles)
- Year in which Attila the Hun died
- Average population density of the US (in people/sq mi)
Print out this tip and next to each numbered item write a lower and upper bound estimate (no Googling the answers!). Check back Monday. © 2010 Institute of Management Consultants USA